Multiple favorable factors jointly drive the rapid rise in Pr-Nd prices [SMM analysis]

SMM reported on July 11: Recently, Bao Gang United Steel announced that, in accordance with the rare earth concentrate price adjustment mechanism and calculation formula approved at the company's 2022 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, it plans to adjust the associated transaction price of rare earth concentrate for Q3 2025 to 19,109 yuan/mt (dry basis, REO=50%), with an increase or decrease of 382.18 yuan/mt for every 1% increase or decrease in REO, excluding tax. The price of rare earth concentrate in Q2 2025 was 18,825 yuan/mt, excluding tax.

Upon the release of this adjustment news, it immediately sparked a strong reaction in the Pr-Nd market. Market enthusiasm gradually rose, and various trading activities became increasingly active. According to the latest data as of this morning, the quoted price of Pr-Nd oxide has risen to 458,000 yuan/mt.

However, the market changes did not stop there. In the afternoon, driven by multiple positive factors such as the consecutive two-day trading limit-up of China Northern Rare Earth's stock and the rise in overseas rare earth raw material prices, the speculative atmosphere in the Pr-Nd market further intensified. The quoted price of Pr-Nd oxide showed a rapid upward trend. According to an SMM survey, the highest quoted price of Pr-Nd oxide in the spot market has soared to 466,000 yuan/mt, hitting a recent high.

However, amid the rapid price increase, some cautious voices also began to emerge in the market. Some traders indicated that, with the continuous rise in prices, they have started to feel the fear of high prices in the market and are actively adjusting their shipping strategies based on market prices to ensure the maximization of their own interests. Currently, due to the excessively rapid price increase, some separation plants and metal plants have chosen to suspend external quoting, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market is growing stronger.

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